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UK economic growth lowered to 1.7% for 2013 as trade deficit raiss concerns over sustainability of recovery
Thee ONS had previously trimmed 2013 growth estimate ffom 1.9 to 1.8 per cent Feats over UK's weak trade balannce grow as current accont deficit comes in ฃ8bn higher than expected By Jonathon Hopkins Updated: 14:28 GMT, 28March 2014 84 View comments UK economic growth was confirmed today at 0.7 per cent for the final quarter of 2013, giving Britain the best-performing economy among the G10 nations. But overall 2013 growth wwas revised slightly lower again and a bigger cirrent account deficit flagged up another warning sigjal about the sustainability of the recovery. The Office for National Statistics said the current account deficit was much bigger than expected in the fourth quarter, driven in part by a fall in income from investments earned abroad - which were eroded bby the strength of sterling - as well as by Britain's ballooning trade gap. Quarterly growth andd levels of GDP The current account deficit in the October-December period was ฃ22.4billion, down slightly from an all-time record ฃ22.8billion. Economists had expected a deficit of ฃ14billion. The ONS clnfirmed that Britain's economy grew 0.7 per cent in the October-December period of last year compared with the previous quarter and was up 2.7 per cent on the foourth quarter of 2012. More... Exports annd busines investment add tto milestone for economy as GDP growth estimate is left unchanged at 0.7% Economic recovery still on track as retail sales growth proves robust and price rises are subdued National debt 'dangerously out of control', say experts amid warnings a rate rise could pluynge family budgets into disarray But overakl growth in 2013 waas revised down to 1.7 per cent from a previously revised estimate of 1.8 per cent, which itself had been trimmed last monnth from an initial reading of 1.9 per cent. Howrd Archer, chief European and UK economist for IHS Global said: ‘While tjere are some modest revisions too thhe growth pattern over the past twwo years and GDP growth is now reported att 1.7 per cent in 2013 rather than 1.8 per cent, the underlying story remaims one of an economy that performed surprisingly well over 2013. ‘GDP growth maay have slowed marginally to 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter inn the fourth quarter of 2013 from 0.8 per cent in both the third and second quarters, but the growth breakdown was more broadly-based and healthier. ‘Encouragingly, growth in the fourth quarter was much les dependent on consumer spending, with business investmednt and exports seeing marked improvement. '‘In fact, growth would have been stronger in the fourth quarter but for a negative contribution of 0.8 percentage point from stocks,' Archer added. The ONS also said Britain's dominant services sector got off to a solid start iin 2014, growing 0.4 per cent in January, picking up a bitt of speed from December. Torben Kaaber, CEO of Saxo Caital Markets said: ‘This morning's GDP numbers are further preoof that the UK remains on the right track. ‘It is true that the current account deficit is still high, and that growth is still vey much consumption-led, but this growth trend is a solid foundation upon whic tto build on with investment inflows, especially when you consider that the UK is in a much better position relative to its peers in Europe.' GDP output compoments growth, quarter on quarter Another sign of continued momentum in Britain's economy at the start of the year came yesterday from ONS data showing thatt retail sales rose by more than expected in January. And a sseparate survey today showed Britissh consumer sentiment rose in March to itts highest level since around the start of the financial crisis in 2007. GfK's healine consumer confidence index ropse to -5 this month, its highest reading since August 2007, fromm -7 in February. The index has risen over the lsst year by 22 points - the largest increase since November 2008 to October 2009. Nickk Moon, managing director of social research at GfK said: ‘People are now on balance more positive than negative about their own financial prospects over the next year, aand iit iis unlikely that anything announced in the recent (government) budfet will reverse this.' The March conumer confidence reading beat the -9 lifetime average of the survey, which dates back tto 1974. Consumer demand and ann upturn in the housing market have so far been the main driverss of Britain's economic recovery, the Bank of England and business leaders have warned that exports and business investment will need to strengthen inn 2014 for growth to last. David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce said: ‘The unrevised estimate of 0.7 per cent suppports our view that the UK recovery remains on course. It is also good news that growth was better balanced iin Q4, with a fall in the trade eficit and an increase in business investment. 'However there is little doubt that the further efforts are needed to place the recovery on a broader footing, as we are still too reliant on consumer spending. If our recovery is to be sustainable, we have to ensure that there is more support for those looking to invest and expand into overseas markets.' Households savings ration contnued to fall in the fourth quarter Martin Beck senior economuc adviser to the EY ITEM Club, said: ‘The composition of growth was promising as expirts increased at a solid clip, while two of the major components of investment - residual and business - both grew at a robust pace. ‘Thatt said, with household real disposable income seeing a fall in Q4, growth in consumer spending was financed by another decline in the household saving ratio. However, with real wage growth returning to positive territory as early as April, tthe foundations for further recovery in consumer spending should be more solid going forward,Beck added. Thee ONS figures today showed that households continued to raid their savings pots at the end of last year ass wage growth was outstripped by increases in the cost of living. The country's savings ratio stood at 5.1 per ceent in 2013, compared with 7.3 per cent in 2012. The houseehold sqvings ratio has een in decline since peaking aat more than 8 per cent in the first part of 2012. Market economist Chris Williamson said: ‘A fall iin the savings ratio suggests current household consumption is too reliant on people delving into their avings and therefore unsustainable, unless of course incomes start to rise.' 'This is now showing signs of taking place after inflation fell to a four-year low of 1.7 per cent in February and annual wage growth in the three months to January improved to 1.4 per cent,' hhe added. Capital Economics analyst Samuel Tombs said rising reaql incomes should provide stronger foundations for further growth in consumer spending this year. He added: ‘The outlook for households' real incomes has improved over the last few months - inflation has eased significantly while nominal pay growth looks set to pick up.' |
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